The Problem with Weather Forecasting

It is my favorite season. Some would say summer is their favorite, hey there are even winter lovers out there, but spring wins it hands down for me. I look forward to it all winter. Those first few days of above 0 temperatures, the first signs that winter is coming to an end, nothing beats that feeling for me. I get into a good mood and as the days get warmer I get happier. Then I remember I live in Saskatchewan, my good mood slowly starts to fade.

I flip on the Weather Network to see the upcoming forecast. I squint a little, this can't be right? It is the end of April; it's supposed to be getting gradually warmer. Those guys at the network must have been used to adding the minus sign in front of the temperature. They still must have neglected to update the icon from snow to rain, sheesh these guys are behind, damn slackers.

I go online to find a reliable forecast. I am telling myself the whole time that what I just saw was wrong, they are never right anyways, so I am not that bothered. Yet that is.

I scroll down on weather site after weather site, now I start to realize they all can't be wrong. Can they? Well it is Saskatchewan so there is always the possibility it may be wrong, or at least a tad inaccurate. Unfortunately the actual weather is almost always a few degrees colder than predicted. In fact, in all my years in this province, I have never experienced the wow some experience when they predict -30, only to have the temperature show up around +24. Yeah, that never seems to happen. Although quite frequently, especially in March and April +15 and sunny, can become -10 and snow within a 24 hour period. Well sometimes 2 hour period, but that's a whole 'nother story.

I question why the great inaccuracies? I can't seem to grasp why for weeks on end the network/Internet weather forecasts are dead on, but March hits, and they can't even seem to predict what the afternoon will be like in the morning forecast. I don't even understand why I watch it. It is wrong more times than right, and it seems to fuck up my day, causing me unwanted and unneeded stress.

I think I may have a solution. I will do my own forecast. I wonder how hard this may be, but in reality it can't be more wrong than any other forecast, wrong is wrong, so what is the difference? I will start off with a 5 day forecast and I will see how I do. Hey who knows maybe Too Realwill be your one-stop weather update site from now on?

Here we go, the five day forecast brought to you by me.

Next 5 days

Day will start out cold, followed by a warming trend, then a cooling trend with a chance of snowy showers, turning to flurries, with a possibility of mixed precipitation, and a chance of sunshine in the afternoon. Evenings will be milder turning to cooler with no precipitation, but a chance of flurries is possible. Possible accumulation for the next five days is between 0 and 300 cms of snow or 5mm of rain. Probability of precipitation is 0%. There is still a strong chance of wind, but may in fact be calm. Clouds will prevail until the sun pokes out. Will be a nice day on Thursday, but by mid afternoon there is an 80% chance of freezing rain.

There you have it, my first forecast ever. Seems pretty straight forward doesn't it? Check back in five days and tell me if I was right or not.

That is the point I am trying to prove. It is the vast usage of the words, probable, and chance, and maybe even, that makes weather forecasts a joke to me. Five days from now, you could look back on this and there would be no way I could be wrong. I covered rain, snow, mixed precipitation, sun clouds, wind and calm. All I had to do to be right is say a chance, or maybe. I know there is a lot of science involved, but if all science is this much guessing, what is the point?

Now get outside and enjoy the sunny, with probable clouds, with no chance of precipitation, but possible flurries day.

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